Well, was I right or was I right?

01Dec10
Sure, there’s still a month left in 2010, but I thought it might be fun to go back to my predictions about 5 things that won’t happen in 2010.

1) Once again, mobile marketing won’t live up to the hype. As much as marketers want to jump on the bandwagon and sell mobile at every turn, smartphone penetration is still only over 1 in 3 for a single demographic (25-34) and barely 2 in 10 overall. As I said last year: if only 20% of America had cable, do you think advertisers would be hyping it like mad? However, with other platforms making a push, I think mobile might finally be set for a modest jump in 2011 – but still not as big as all the pundits will predict.

2) Advertising jobs won’t make a comeback. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Well, agencies have started hiring, although it’s a little spotty. But it seems like we’re making a comeback faster than anyone thought. We’re not all the way back, but it’s a start.

3) Clients won’t stop asking for “viral” videos and agencies won’t stop pitching them. I wrote: For the last time, you cannot make a viral video. You can make a video, and it may or may not go viral. Was I wrong?

4) Agencies will not devise an alternate method of compensation. I wrote: no one will solve the puzzle of how to get paid not just for hours worked but for what we really produce – ideas. And unfortunately, no one has. A bunch of big names including Victors & Spoils are pushing the boundaries of how agencies are set up and organized, but the compensation models have remained the same.

5) TV won’t die. It didn’t.

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